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financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's thursday, november 15th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: traders will likely react to earnings today from walmart and target after getting clues into how the consumer is holding up. yesterday the market took a plunge. the dow fell nearly 200 points. stocks dropped on fears washington will be slow to break out a workable budget, the fed hinting at the need for more stimulus, and air strikes in the middle east. reports say the federal housing administration is close to running out of money reserves as mortgage delinquencies rise. gm set a goal of producing a half million electric cars per year starting in 2017. and starbucks plans to buy teavana for $620 million in cash. let's get the breakdown now on

market action with phillip streible of rjo futures. good to have you on the show. good morning to you. and how significant was yesterday's sell-off? > > it was fairly significant. i mean, we saw just no bounce whatsoever. we saw a continuation to the downside, taking out some previous day's lows and a lot of key support on the s&p. we saw weaker retail sales numbers. and that has been kind of a common theme with some of the economic data. and also there's a lot of gloom and doom with the fiscal cliff right around the corner. > > oil also made a big move. what are the futures saying? > > the interesting thing about oil is over the last week there has been a lot of talk about oversupply, u.s. production levels quite high. but yesterday we saw a precision air strike from israel on a hamas chief-of-staff leader, and what that did was it raised that bar again about the geopolitical risk with crude-oil, and we saw this big reversal to the upside. > > there is yet another call for gold to go to $2,000 an

ounce. what do you think about that? > > i definitely think so. the issue that we're having here is safety, and there's not enough of it to be spread around. we're seeing almost no yield in treasuries. we saw a german note auction that provided a negative yield. the dollar index isn't much safer than the euro currency. so gold seems to be a hard asset and a place that traders may want to be. > > good to have you on the show this morning. have a good trading day phillip. > > thank you. president obama has set the pace for tomorrow's meeting with congressional leaders. in a news conference yesterday the president reiterated the need to raise taxes on the wealthy while continuing tax breaks for the middle class. the president wants to bring in $1.6 trillion in new revenue. the president made the comments yesterday, at his first news conference since his re-election. "as i've said before, i'm open to compromise and i'm open to new ideas. and i've been encouraged over the past week to hear republican after republican agree on the need for

more revenue from the wealthiest americans as part of our arithmatic if we're going to be serious about reducing the deficit." last week, house speaker john boehner said that congress has ways to avert the fiscal crisis, but rewriting the tax code in two or three weeks is not one of them. lawmakers have until midnight on new year's eve to reach an agreement. the first round of meetings begins today. hurricane sandy's power-packed winds swept away sales momentum in the retail sector, especially in the car industry. prior to the storm, retail sales were edging higher. the month of september was revised up 1.3% from 1.1%. but after sandy, overall, retail sales slid .3% in october, the first dip in 3 months. automaker sales plunged 1.5%, the larget drop since august of 2011. car makers blame the storm for sluggish sales and predict a rebound in november. the national automobile dealer'' association is standing by its prediction that as many as a quarter of a million vehicles suffered damage from superstorm sandy. and as our cover story explains, many of them could be resold at auction and wind up on used car lots from coast-to- coast.

the national automobile dealer'' association says despite fewer than 40,000 claims filed in the first week after the storm, the final total of damaged cars could go even higher than a quarter of a million. and just as was the case after hurricane katrina, their next stop could be a used car lot. "if it was from new jersey and sold right after the storm, i'd walk away." damaged cars may be resold, cleaned up and title transfered. most states keep their own records of a vehicle'' history, but not all of them. "missouri can wipe clean a vehicle's history when title changes." so used car buyers are warned to look for clues, particularly

exposure to salt water. "it'll wick its way up, evaporate, but the salt will remain and corrode the car." "there may be a smell of mold and maybe even twigs and leaves under the hood." the watchdog group consumers for auto reliability and safety suggests searching information on a car though this website: "vehicle history-dot-gov." it's required that all total loss vehicles are to be reported to this federal database within 30 days. some predict that increased demand for used cars in the storm's aftermath and the relatively low number of new cars sold during the recession may lead to a spike in late- model used car prices, a jump that could be seen all along the east coast.

just one month after its largest recall ever, toyota is announcing the recall of an additional 2.8 million cars. this time the cars include the flagship prius, due to faulty steering columns and a potentially hazardous wiring issue. no accidents have been reported. the government is cracking down on foreign corruption cases. this week, the justice department and the sec released a guide to the foreign corrupt practices act. the law bans american businesses from using bribes to help business abroad. foreign corruption cases have spiked in recent years. earlier this year, wal-mart came under fire when the company was accused of corporate bribery in mexico. the cases are gaining attention due to the enormous fees companies pay as settlements. strikes by union workers in europe are gaining support. the latest walkouts in spain, portugal and greece caused flight delays, shut down manufacturing plants and slowed traffic at retailers. union employees are protesting government budget cuts to healthcare, education,

and pensions, while taxes are going up and so is unemployment. the number of union workers participating in the largest walkout this year is reported at 80%. critics say it's not likely to have an effect on goverment officials who are making the cuts. the fda is seeking more power from congress. following a recent outbreak of meningitis, the fda is asking lawmakers for the power to inspect pharmacies that re-combine drugs to meet special needs of specific patients under a doctor's prescription. it's called "drug compounding" and is a practice overseen primarily by state regulators. 32 people died of meningitis after receiving tainted shots. a week before thanksgiving, an animal activist group is accusing the nation's largest producer of turkey meat of abuse and neglect of live turkeys. according to mercy for animals, undercover investigators at butterball spotted employees throwing, kicking and dragging turkeys by their wings and necks. butterball says it takes all claims of abuse seriously, is

investigating and has suspended the associates in question. macy's is unmoved by the online petition to "dump trump." more than 550,000 people have signed the petition urging macys to jettison its donald trump branded clothing. according to petitioners, trump was particularly virulent in his attacks against president obama during the election and deserves to be fired. in a statement, macy's reinforced no plans to change, saying, "many of the individuals associated with products sold at macy's express personal opinions that are not related to the merchandise we sell or to the philosophies of our company." still to come, blockbusters are on marquees everywhere. which one will be the big winner this weekend? that's later on. but first, a legendary guitar

maker pulls the plug on going public. paul eggers joins us for a few notes on the ipo market, coming up next.

new stocks are hitting american exchanges in numbers not seen since the finacial crisis. 121 initial public offerings have priced this year, raising $41 billion, the most since 2007. still, as paul eggers reports, market conditions for every

company looking to go public are not necessarily pitch perfect. david kalt knows guitars. his shop, chicago music exchange, has wall-to-wall six-strings. the most popular brand in his store is fender. "the most important trend to look at is what are the young bands, the up-and-coming bands looking at? and they do have an appreciation for the fender line.' fender's success in the music market - it has a 20% share of the $5.5 billion instrument industry - had the company looking to go public this summer. but, the stock wasn't yet born to rock, and fender delayed its opening act. 'i think what spooked people was, number one, what kind of growth they could actually achieve; and when you generate about 20% of sales from western

europe, that's a pretty big headwind.' ipo analyst pete wahlstrom of morningstar says fender is a strong american company making a great product. 'as a testament to the instrument the company puts out, a lot of the instruments the company made 40-50 years ago are still being used today.' their guitars more than hold their value, meaning that sometimes fender's greatest competition for sales today is a fender from yesterday. 'we find that our customers are more interested in the vintage version than the more contemporary versions.' and while that's great news for the chicago music exchange, for fender, its another reason why its ipo world tour may have to wait. 'i think they can make the case to go do an ipo in 2013.' and even if fndr does debut on the nasdaq, for kalt, who first found success as a co-founder of options express, an investment in an actual fender guitar will top the charts quicker than fender's new stock.

'as a former trader who believes in fair value, the appreciation of a rare instrument from the 60's that will never be created again and has a certain vibe and special uniqueness to it will appreciate 8-10% per year, and i don't think fender stock can accomplish that.' while market conditions may not be great for a fender ipo right now, wahlstrom of morningstar added that he does have a positive outlook for the ipo spin-off of tyco's adt home security brand. still to come, bond may meet his match this weekend as the "twilight" series comes to a close. which film will win it big? movies and money is next.

w

this may turn into an epic weekend at the box office. our movie man, erik childress, has the scoop. good to have you back on the show, erik. after a big blow-out weekend of bond, here it comes, the final "twilight" film, that is "breaking dawn part 2." > > thank god. > > which film prevails? > > "twilight" is definitely going to win the weekend. everyone has waited for this finale. everyone is going to flock to it. it's going to be number one at the box office. we can move on.

> > let's talk about what happened with bond last weekend. record-breaking numbers here. > > we talked about last week that i thought this was going to be the biggest bond ever in the states. it's already at $100 million just in the u.s. it's over $530 million worldwide. it is already the eighth highest grossing film of the year worldwide, and there is no end in sight for it. > > what is playing into its success, and are there any kind of oscar lines being thrown around about it for the actors? > > there definitely are. i think a few of us that are very big fans of the movie, there's not really a lot of best picture talk, although there is going to be whispers about that, but judi dench is a possibility for a nomination. the cinematography, if that's not nominated, it's going to be crazy. but word-of-mouth is a big deal with these bond movies. everyone is going to want to go see a bond movie. if you say

it's good, they go, "oh, i might go check it out." if you say it's great, then it becomes an event. and this one is great. > > here are the final numbers from last weekend: "skyfall" coming in with $88 million. "wreck-it ralph" still hanging in there at $33 million. "flight" at $14 million, "argo" at $6 million - that's a word- of-mouth - and "taken 2" hanging in there with $4 million. "lincoln" is also doing well at the box office. > > yeah, only released on 11 screens across the country, just on here in chicago. made $900,000 last weekend. that's the biggest opening in that realm for a non-animated film. so we're hoping when that opens wide this weekend, people will still go see it, and i'm hoping that will be the case. > > i have a feeling thanksgiving is going to be huge for moviegoing, mostly because there are three films that i want to see over the weekend. so let's take a look at some of the new films that are coming out: "life of pi," "red dawn," "rise of the guardians," "silver linings playbook," and "hitchcock." which one do you like the most? > > the one that i think is going to do the best at the box office is "rise of the guardians," this animated film where santa claus and the tooth fairy and all these classic characters are sort of banding together to save children and humanity. i think it's going to

be a huge film for kids. "wreck-it ralph" will be out for three weeks. so i think that is going to challenge "twilight" next week for the number 1 spot. i think it's going to be close. > > "life of pi," that's an ang lee film. he does beautiful films. i love "sense and sensibility." great film. > > great film. he's made a number of great films: "brokeback mountain;" "hulk," which i like a lot; "crouching tiger, hidden dragon," obviously. this one i am hearing a lot of great things about the visuals, but not so much about the dramatics. so, we'll see how it does. > > and "hitchcock." do we see the real hitchcock? > > you see a better hitchcock than you did on hbo's "the girl," actually. i think it's a fun movie. the adult movie that people are going to want to see that weekend is "silver linings playbook," which is going to be a big oscar player. i think jennifer lawrence in the film is actually going to win the best actress award for this movie. it's opening limited this week, it's going to open wide over thanksgiving. people should check that out. it's really great. > > we have a lot to look forward to. > > very much. this is a good month still. > > still good numbers coming in, and this one is just going to cap it off. > > i think so. "skyfall," go see it. forget "twilight." go see "lincoln." > > good to have you on the show. that's erik childress, our movie man. thank you. still ahead, the two stocks that

starred in yesterday's sell-off. chart talk is coming up.

now on to chart talk, and matt cavanuagh of cmz trading joins us for that. good morning matt. > > good morning. > > in the midst of yesterday's huge sell-off, abercrombie and fitch and facebook and the vix were all up. let's start with the vix. what is that telling us? > > i think you're just seeing the continued uncertainty in the market. you are going to see that vix pop most of the time when the market sells off, and that's what you saw. it is really not as high as i would expect it to be for the kind of sell-off we've had, but it has been a really orderly, slow sell-off. so, the vix is elevated, and it will stay elevated as long as we see this uncertainty, but really nothing too crazy. > > not overly concerned there. what about abercrombie and fitch, coming out with stellar earnings, this stock took off

like a rocket yesterday. > > yeah, what a run. they really did have good earnings. they revised their full-year forecasts. they blew away on the quarter. but i think there is a little bit more to the story. this was a stock that was $75 a year ago. and really it's been one of the most heavily shorted stocks out there. so, it's a combination of there being good news and also the people who are short the stock getting squeezed a little bit. so, while abercrombie has worked through some of their problems - they had some pretty big inventory problems, some problems connecting with their consumer that they're targeting - the jury is still out. i think this move was really more short covering than anything, so i would wait and see on this. > > the shorts had to buy the stock. will that continue on? is there still some more juice in this thing, or is it pretty much over do you think? > > it's tough to tell. there was about five days' worth of stock out there to buy at the average trading volume. but their trading volume was over 10 times what it usually is. so, it's really tough to tell. i think the stock stabilized for

most of the day yesterday, so that would tell you that it's probably done, but i would like to see the stock really stay up, see the turnaround story continue. i am really more of a hold on this than anything. > > and facebook, you traders on this show have done a teriffic job of cluing us in on this stock, and yesterday, this was another star stock. > > yeah, it really was, and you know, we have actually gone through this before when they've had other lockup periods, but there was a little bit more to this one because so many shares were being unlocked. i think you saw people like, "hey, there's 850 million shares that can be sold, the stock has got to go down." well hey, when that didn't happen, you see people come in, rushing, trying to buy their shorts back. so, on a day when the market was down, you see these two stocks up. so, they did have some good news releasing a new jobs app. that could have been part of it. but i think once again it was the short-sellers that got squeezed. > > thank you matt. have a good one. > > thank you. that's the end of the road for us today. coming up tomorrow - why is corporate america holding back on hiring? our traders go unplugged with their views. from all of us at first business, have a great day.

. a situation that is no laughing matter, a famous comedian is detained outside of a hotel. and the new reports after the richmond refinery fire.

it's all ahead on the ktvu channel 2 morning news. this is ktvu channel 2 morning news. good morning, thank you for waking up with us on this thursday, november 14th, what is going to be like, steve? we'll see increasing clouds coming in, it will lead to more rain tomorrow but not too bad right now we will end up cooler today and highs will be in the 60s for many i guess my graphics are not of ming but you'll just have to trust me, here is sal. we have had a couple of accidents west 80 san pablo road. let's go to some live pictures here. this is traffic you can see it is moving welcoming to the willow pass grade and this morning if you are driving in